by Playfuls Staff |
15th September 2006
I’m sure a lot of you readers out there have had it with the Zune vs. iPod war, or the iTunes vs. URGE vs. Live Marketplace vs…whatever. I‘ve had it too.[more]
But I thought I’d better annoy you again with one of those brilliant analyses (…) about… Zune vs. iPod and why Microsoft might lose the battle with Apple and so on…Please bear with me, for I’m no fan of Microsoft or Apple, I don’t have any market shares of any of the two giants, and I don’t have an iPod.
But what actually determined me to throw darts at Zune again (with the risk of pissing you off) is Microsoft’s lack of originality. They definitely could have made Zune better, whether it’s the looks of it or its features. At this moment Zune is merely a mouse chasing a big, hungry cat.
If Microsoft thinks Zune will defeat the iPod-iTunes duality they are clearly wrong. An MP3 player built at Redmond should not only be the expected iPod-killer but the device that would reshape the face of digital entertainment. And to be honest, Zune is definitely not. A copycat, maybe.
Why should Microsoft build something that should revolutionize digital music? Simply because a giant of its size cannot dethrone another giant (Apple) by copying the other’s success-recipe. Microsoft is well known for its innovations, which have created entire consumer markets and have ensured the company a dominant position, and it should stick to this mentality of inventing rather than copying if they are to succeed in the MP3 market. Otherwise, they might end up being associated with the rival (the “iPod-killer” rings a bell?) and they’ll fail at removing the rival’s product out of customers’ mind.
That means that when a customer wants to buy a Redmond-manufactured MP3 player they are going to make at least one comparison: is it or is it not better than the iPod? And do you think Microsoft officials are going to be happy about that?
A simple analogy could explain the potential that Microsoft didn’t use when creating the Zune player: PSP vs. Nintendo DS. Although it was a risky bet for Nintendo to release an unusual, dual screen, portable gaming console, the Japanese company now boasts with the fact that DS sells are stellar in its main markets (in Japan for example DS outsells PSP by a factor of five to one) despite its poorer capabilities compared to the PSP. Not to mention the weird name Wii that Nintendo chose for its next-gen console, name which attracted a lot of laughs and criticism at the beginning, but which definitely attracted attention upon it and made it one of the most expected gadgets this year, toping even PS3.
According to recently released CESA figures, Nintendo sold 4.25 million DS units during 2005, while Sony shifted only 2.61 million PSPs.
How did Nintendo manage to come on top after being considered the outsider? Well, by being original and by investigating new possibilities in the older markets or by creating markets (games specially designed for girls or for elderly people).
Microsoft chose not to learn from Nintendo’s example and this could just be the trigger for Zune’s failure. Although every gaming site or revue designates Wii as the gadget most likely to be acquired during the Christmas shopping season by parents (due to its price and…originality), I haven’t seen many positive reviews regarding this matter for Zune. The lack of details about features and capabilities maybe? No, because the same applies for Wii too. Zune just doesn’t make users enthusiastic. And you can’t blame them …
There is nothing that new and revolutionary that would make Zune’s target population wait in lines at stores like they did with Xbox 360 in November 2005. To me, Zune seems like some sort of iPod built at Redmond. But not at all an iPod killer.
Some might argue that the MP3 player market has already established its rules and in order to succeed you need to follow those rules. But it’s Apple who stated them in the first place! Do Microsoft officials think they can shake Apple/the iPod/iTunes on their own turf using their own weapons?! That will lead to an even bigger failure, because in that case what they’ll be fighting is customers’ habit of using Cupertino-made products. And why would I use Microsoft products when I already used (almost) the same products, at (almost) the same quality, for (almost) the same price, for at least 3 years?
And just think that others have tried too to follow the rules stated by Apple, and have ended-up witnessing the iPod and iTunes getting stronger (Gigabeat for example, which is built by Toshiba, the manufacturer of Zune…).
Microsoft will also have difficulties in imposing the Zune-Windows Marketplace couple, in order to compete with iPod-iTunes duality. First, iPod-iTunes resonates better. Not to mention that some users of MP3 players (other than iPod) don’t even know about URGE, the music download service that Microsoft launched in association with MTW when Windows Media Player 11 came out. Are we going to have a Zune-URGE service or a Zune-WM service? Or both at the same time, in hope for a bigger profits?
It is clear that the iPod-Zune war shall be a long war and that Microsoft will register huge losses (they have already admitted it), while Apple will continue thriving (iTunes will offer movies in addition to music).
In order to build the already famous iPod-killer, Microsoft plans (as usual) to spend millions of dollars from its almost bottomless sack of money. It is the declaration of Robbie Bach, president of the newly formed 'Entertainment and Devices Division' at Microsoft, in charge with the Argo project (which includes Zune). The declaration came out at a recent annual financial meeting for Microsoft.
Microsoft also informed its creditors present at the manifestation that it expects to lose money all the way till 2008! But from the looks of it, Zune will need more than two years to beat iPod. During this period Zune might just transform itself into another boxing sack for Apple’s popular MP3 player.
While Apple doesn’t need a revolution (just small “retouches” as the ones recently operated for iPod and iTunes) Microsoft would desperately need one with Zune, which is not the case.
There is little to be mentioned as revolutionary in the “connected entertainment” that Microsoft wants to impose with its device. Although it is nice to have the option of sharing songs or photos instantly using Zune’s wireless dowry, anyone can realize that this is natural move derived from the “social networking” trend (MySpace, YouTube, etc.). Microsoft exploits the idea but not in the manner it should have and not entirely at its full potential.
The lack of originality with Zune could cost the Redmond giant more than the invested amount of money, sending Microsoft on Apple’s orbit instead of its own. And trailing Apple is not profitable.
