by Playfuls Staff |
26th November 2006
During the last month, the launch of Sony’s PS3 and Nintendo’s Wii consoles and the upgrades the Xbox 360 received, have conquered the attention of the entire mass-media. So how grim is the future of the PC as a gaming platform?[more]
It was somehow normal to ask myself that, since not only did the gaming consoles receive all the attention, but the games for them too. I learned recently that Gears of War sold more than 1 million copies in less than a month (way to go, Microsoft!) and that Zelda for Wii (and other games for it too, like Wii Sports or Red Steel) are also registering stellar sells. Although major titles were also launched for PC this fall (FEAR Extraction Point, Splinter Cell Double Agent, Dark Messiah of Might and Magic, Need for Speed Carbon, PES 6, Call of Juarez or Gothic 3…OMG, and I have not even finished Dark Messiah!...) they did not get so much publicity as before (publishers’ strategy to boost sales for consoles?).
This, and other factors that I will mention further on, made me think that maybe the PC as a gaming platform is dying.
I had received a few weeks ago from a local store Nvidia’s newest and most powerful graphics card in order to review it (the 8800 GTS; the GTX was at that time being pulled out from the market due to some problems with the memory bus I think). While looking at it I was amazed by its dimensions (it has this huge PCB that barely fits into a regular ATX and the cooler occupies 2 PCI slots). Next to my desk was a PlayStation 2 and the inevitable comparison pops in: the 8800 costs at least two times more than the entire PS2+some games!!
I also remembered something I had read before about the declining sales for games built for the PC platform. According to NPD group, a company specialized in sales statistics, PC games have reached a peak in 1999, with a total of $1.9 billion, and since then they have continuously dropped: $1.78 billion in 2000, $1.75 billion in 2001, 1.4 in 2002, 1.2 in 2003 and $1.1 billion in 2004 (the sums were calculated for the US only). Of course, you can’t trust statistics: the ESA (Entertainment Software Association) says that only in 2005 for example, the U.S. computer and video game software sales grew four percent in 2005 to $7 billion- a more than doubling of industry software sales since 1996 (but that does not differentiate PC vs. consoles).
There are a lot of reasons for such contradictions but I’m sure of one thing: gaming consoles have definitely inflicted some damage to the PC. After Half Life (which appeared in 1998 and boosted sales towards the peak registered in 1999- more than 2.5 copies sold), the publishers and producers re-oriented towards their new “toys”: PS 2 and Xbox. That could be one explanation for the consequent decline. Following this idea, we should expect yet another decline this year and next year too, now that we have so many next-gen consoles to choose from…
Piracy is definitely the toughest enemy for PC games. It’s much easier to bypass the protection of PC games than the protection of any other console. We also have to notice that while games for PC are apparently dropping, the number of consoles sold worldwide is in a continuous growth (combined with their diversification: the Nintendo DS and the PSP), which contributes to the increase of the adjacent software package (there are more games sold for consoles than there are for PC). Still, we have to take in consideration the fact that the PC is only one platform, while consoles are…well, more than a single platform ;) and that their combined sales are certainly bigger. What is worth mentioning though is that the sales of PC-games stand worse compared to their position in the past, while console-games sales have done nothing else than to steadily rise.
One bias in the statistics concerning games for PC is generated by online sales. Valve’s Steam is the best example: no need to go to the shop, just make an account and download the game you want. Doug Lombardi once declared that retail shops will eventually go extinct, as the broadband Internet grows: it’s less expensive for publishers to sell their games online, it’s a lot more comfortable and fast for gamers to have the game they want. But with services like Microsoft’s Xbox Live and PlayStation Network interfering, PC-games might encounter serious problems.
Since we’ve reached the Microsoft chapter, I should remind you again what the Redmond big brother is saying and doing (it’s important because when you say PC today you say unfortunately Windows…gaming is the second most important activity for Windows users, occupying about 18-20% of their time, after Web browsing; considering Vista’s high price and lack of innovation, I wonder how does a “Games for Linux” initiative sound like?...). They are saying that the PC has lost 10% annually in favor of consoles!! A classic example of how to shoot yourself in the foot?
Although concurrence is good on the market, the fact that MS entered the console domain with Xbox has seriously affected the Windows platform. They managed to attract many hardcore gamers to Xbox, Xbox 360 and Xbox Live, bringing absolutely nothing new for gaming on the Windows platform in the last decade. The paradox continues: although Xbox still produces losses, has very tough rivals and functions on the “we hope that…” principle, Windows is still benefiting from being the dominant platform, but pays the losses produced by a product that strangulates its success. This creates a chain reaction: lack of interest for Windows/PC gaming generates lagging sales; lagging sales generate either bankruptcy or console-orientation for publishers and producers; this means a reduced number of PC titles and so on…
The future does not look good either: Gabe Newell declared once that he does not find in Vista anything that might help him in any way possible. Coming from a guy like him, that’s just awful. But what is Windows Vista doing for gamers is really not that spectacular: an automated detection system that chooses the right settings for a game, based on the installed hardware; improved parental control, for games rated “M”; the possibility to access games from a separate menu (now that’s just like a useless appendix…); the possibility to search for upgrades automatically (no thanks, games have that too…); Direct X 10 (yeah, I’ll need to buy a new graphics card to have Aero work…). And only a single famous title that will fully use Vista’s capabilities for 64-bit computing and its DX 10 feature: Crysis, produced by Crytek. Of course, to be able to play it you’ll need to totally renew your PC, which might just make you think a PS3 or an Xbox 360 or even a Wii is not that bad…
Which brings us to our next chapter: having fun on PC is more expensive than having fun on consoles. You constantly have to upgrade your hardware to be able to play new games at full detail, on high res. Settings like anti-aliasing or anisotropic filtering are already obsolete, although still used; the degree of realism now depends on whether you can activate soft shadows, volumetric lights or Pixel Shader 3.0 (at minimum). That of course requires you to buy the latest GPU, just to see than in less than a year you need a new one…
By comparison, a console is the same every year, and you can still use even your PS1 today (just buy a PSP and you’ll see ;)… ). And the fact that backward compatibility is also available for games running on newer consoles (like in PS3’s case) that is just even better. On the other hand, a PS2 or Xbox game is the same on every console, while on PCs…well, you know how many bugs you get on different configurations and how many patches you need for them… On a console, you just plug and play; on a PC you install, select settings, apply patches (if any), sometimes reboot and only than you can play. It’s true that on top PC configurations games look fantastic, but not everybody is the child of Bill Gates…
All in all, despite all these difficulties and unsolved problems, I personally believe that we are just witnessing a transformation rather than a death of PC games. They will never disappear, since they are intrinsically tied to the ever evolving PC. There are games that can only be played and only look good on PC (MMORPGs are a classical example, although we do have Final Fantasy for PlayStation). And there are also a lot of PC fans that will always pay.
And let’s face it: rivalry between the two platforms is offering more choices, and thus every one can be pleased…
